A recently received email:
Firstly, can I say how impressed I am with the amount of detail and effort that has gone into the Wine Doctor website. It’s an invaluable resource. I’m planning to invest about £2,000 in some to quality Bordeaux wines. I’ve done a lot of research and I was wondering which 3/4 chateaux you would recommend. I like the look of Montrose, Palmer and Margaux. What do you think?
That’s it – I’ve just removed the name of the sender, no more. I left it a few weeks as I have no interest in giving out free wine investment advice (for a variety of reasons), but then rediscovered the email when doing a little electronic filing, and sent this reply:
Reading your question, I think you need to spend a lot more time considering your plan, and ask yourself a few more questions. For instance:
- where are you going to find cases of the chateaux you mentioned for less than £2000?
- who is going to sell you Margaux, no strings attached?
- where are you going to keep these wines – do you have a bonded account?
- what are the storage charges?
- which vintages are you looking at?
- where is the wine market now – is there room for continued growth, or is it a bubble?
- is your plan quick return or long-term gain?
- what is the planned return?
- have you factored in storage costs?
- what does Parker say about the wines? Is there room for upscoring?
- is the quality of the vintage considered sufficient to make upscoring likely?
- is it a recent vintage Parker may have “over-scored”? This makes downscoring rather likely.
Unless you have answers to all of these questions now, I would steer clear of trying your hand at wine investment.
What is up for debate though is perhaps not my reply (although feel free to comment) but the question in the first place. I have seen it written that a sign of a bubble market is when “the man on the street” (the “cab-driver” is an alternative source) starts talking about investing. Is this a sign of a Bordeaux bubble? If it is, does it mean the bubble will burst soon?